As the 2024 presidential election approaches, many are wondering just how unpopular a sitting president can be and still win reelection. In the case of President Joe Biden, who has faced criticism from both sides of the political spectrum, the answer may surprise you.
First, it’s important to note that a president’s approval rating is not the only factor that determines their chances of winning reelection. Other factors, such as the state of the economy, the strength of the opposition party, and the effectiveness of the president’s campaign, can all play a role.
That being said, a low approval rating can certainly make it more difficult for a president to win reelection. According to historical data, no president with an approval rating below 48% has won a second term since Harry Truman in 1948.
Currently, President Biden’s approval rating hovers around 50%, which is relatively low compared to other presidents at this point in their term. However, it’s worth noting that his approval rating has been fairly consistent throughout his presidency, and he has not experienced any major dips or spikes.
So, how unpopular can Biden be while still winning reelection? It’s difficult to say for sure, but it’s possible that he could win with an approval rating in the low 40s or even high 30s.
One reason for this is that the Republican Party is currently facing its own challenges. The party is deeply divided between Trump loyalists and more moderate Republicans, and it’s unclear which faction will come out on top in the coming years.
If the Republican Party is unable to unite behind a strong candidate, it could give Biden an advantage even if his approval rating is low. Additionally, if the economy continues to improve and Biden is able to pass popular legislation, his approval rating could rise in the coming years.
Of course, there are no guarantees in politics, and anything can happen between now and the 2024 election. But if history is any indication, a low approval rating is not necessarily a death sentence for a sitting president’s reelection chances.